Monday, October 26, 2026 — wLow Tested and Rejected, Short Covering Runs NIFTY 350 Points to the Weekly High
NIFTY futures opened Monday at 22,560.0 — below Friday's close of 22,589.0 and below the CPR's lower bound at 22,607.4. A bearish open location on a Monday before expiry. The market wasted no time testing the obvious level: within the first two bars, price dipped to 22,440.0, the weekly low set on Friday. That's where the bears ran out of sellers. Short Covering (OI Sense: orange) ignited and the session turned into a 350-point straight-line recovery — through TC, PP, BC, Camarilla R3 at 22,704, all the way to the weekly high at 22,790.0. The close came in at 22,774.8, up 198.2 points (+0.88%). With expiry on Tuesday Oct 27, Monday just told us which side of the table has a problem.
Order Flow Analysis
The wLow test and the Short Covering trigger
The opening bars were negative — cumulative delta came in at -1.26K and -1.79K in the first two 15-minute periods as the market drove from 22,560 down to 22,440. The wLow was not just tested; it was the same 22,440 that Friday put in as the session extreme. When the same level holds twice in three trading sessions, it stops being an accident. Short Covering kicked in at exactly that point: OI Sense flipped orange, futures OI fell as price rose — the classic signature of trapped shorts unwinding rather than fresh buyers taking the initiative.
The climb through the entire CPR and beyond
From 22,440, the delta turned and stayed positive — 415, 1.58K, 1.21K, 1.21K, 777, 1.26K in consecutive bars. The session reclaimed TC (22,607.4), PP (22,625.8), and BC (22,644.2) in a single clean move, never pausing to retest below. VWAP, sitting in the 22,640–22,660 area, was crossed and held above for the rest of the session. The midday period produced the session's defining print: an 11.56K volume bar — the heaviest of the day — with sustained positive delta, suggesting large-lot absorption rather than retail momentum chasing. Camarilla R3 at 22,704 was punched through without a meaningful pullback. The run continued to the weekly high at 22,790.0.
Poor High at 22,785.1
The session topped at 22,790.0 and the market profile recorded a Poor High at 22,785.1 — a single-print top, price reaching that level in one period and not revisiting it. The final hour showed the market settling between 22,760 and 22,790, closing at 22,774.8. Not a blow-off high, but also not a well-auctioned one. A Poor High is the market's way of saying it got there faster than it meant to. Expiry-day price action tomorrow will determine whether 22,785 becomes a ceiling or a floor.
15-minute footprint. Open below CPR at 22,560, wLow tested at 22,440 in the opening bars (negative delta -1.26K, -1.79K), Short Covering trigger, delta turning positive through the entire CPR recovery. 11.56K volume absorption bar midday. Close at 22,774.8 well above VWAP and Camarilla R3.
Key Order Flow Takeaway
- wLow held for the second consecutive session — 22,440 was Friday's session low and Monday's intraday low. Two tests, two rejections. This level is now structurally significant.
- OI Sense read Short Covering throughout — the 350-point rally was driven by existing short positions unwinding, not fresh buyers stepping in. The distinction matters: Short Covering rallies can be sharp and fast but often lack follow-through once the shorts are covered.
- The 11.56K midday absorption bar is the session's signature print — peak volume mid-session at a key area, with the market holding above it through the close. This is institutional activity, not retail momentum.
- Opened below CPR, closed above CPR by 130 points (BC at 22,644.2, close at 22,774.8). The CPR was not just reclaimed — it was left far behind. A bullish structural read heading into expiry.
- Poor High at 22,785.1 — the upside extreme was thin and un-auctioned. Price got there, did not find acceptance, and the session ended just below it. This is the single level to watch on Tuesday.
Market Profile Analysis
Monday's profile is a Trend Day up — the most directional day type, where value migrates from the session open to the session close without a meaningful overlap with the prior day's value area. The Open Rejection Reverse type: the session opened below CPR structure, immediately tested the wLow, was rejected, and then drove relentlessly higher through the entire day. This is the profile of a session where the market decided its direction in the first two bars and did not look back.
Value settled in the 22,608.3 to 22,700 area, with the POC at 22,663.5. The [34/26] TPO distribution confirms a slight upside skew — 34 time-price opportunities above the POC versus 26 below. The lower portion of the range (22,440 to 22,600) is largely single prints: the market moved through it so quickly that it never built value there. Single-print zones invite revisits, but on a session where the market showed this much directional conviction, a revisit of the 22,440–22,560 zone would require a significant sentiment reversal — not a given on expiry day.
30-minute TPO. Trend Day up: Open Rejection Reverse from 22,440 wLow, value migrated to 22,608–22,700. POC 22,663.5, VAL 22,608.3. Poor High at 22,785.1 — single print at the top. [34/26] TPO split confirms upside skew. Prior sessions visible to the left; Wednesday Oct 21 reference at 22,984 remains the broader overhead target.
Structural Levels
Tomorrow (expiry day, Tuesday Oct 27), from Monday's H/L/C (22,790.0 / 22,440.0 / 22,774.8): a wide CPR of 107 points — TC 22,721.6, PP 22,668.3, BC 22,615.0. The close at 22,774.8 is above TC (22,721.6), which is a bullish configuration. Wide CPR on expiry typically signals a range-bound day, but with the close above TC and short covering in full flow, the bias is skewed to defend the gains above TC before expiry.
Resistance
- 22,785.1 — Monday's Poor High. The un-auctioned top. First test of this on Tuesday will tell you whether it's being accepted or rejected.
- 22,790.0 — wHigh / Monday's high. A print above here opens a run toward the Oct 21 reference at 22,984.
- 22,984 — Wednesday Oct 21 session reference. The next major supply level on the composite profile.
Support
- 22,721.6 — expiry day TC. The upper bound of Tuesday's CPR. A dip and hold here is bullish; a close below flips to bearish.
- 22,663.5 — Monday's POC. The gravity centre for Tuesday's morning auction.
- 22,607.4 — Monday's TC / CPR lower bound. This was the open location that opened bearish; a return here on Tuesday would signal short covering exhaustion.
- 22,440.0 — wLow. Two tests, two holds. The level the entire week is organised around. A break through here is the bear case's first real confirmation.
Options and Futures OI
Short Covering dominated the session — futures OI declined as price rose, which is the textbook OI Sense orange reading. The shorts that were added on Friday's Short Buildup session have now been squeezed out over Monday. With expiry on Tuesday, the OI picture becomes distorted by rollover — fresh positions going into next month's series while current-month positions close. What matters is where max pain sits (22,700, per the pre-market note) relative to Monday's close at 22,774.8. The market is sitting 74 points above max pain heading into expiry. Option writers will defend that gap; whether they can depends on whether the fresh short covering leaves any ammunition on the bear side.
The two-session sequence — Friday's Short Buildup into the wLow followed by Monday's Short Covering explosion out of the same level — is the cleanest expiry-week setup in the October series. Bears added at the bottom; bulls squeezed them out on Monday. Tuesday's question is whether the squeeze continues above the Poor High at 22,785 or whether the wHigh at 22,790 acts as the week's definitive ceiling.
Trading Implications
The expiry squeeze continuation case. Monday's close above all CPR levels and above Camarilla R3 (22,704) is a bull confirmation. The wLow held twice. Short Covering has cleared out the weakest bears. If Tuesday opens above Monday's TC (22,721.6) and fills the Poor High at 22,785 with multiple TPOs, the weekly high at 22,790 breaks and the Oct 21 reference at 22,984 opens. Expiry-day call writer defence above max pain (22,700) also works in this direction.
The Poor High rejection case. The 22,785.1 Poor High was a one-period print — the market sprinted there, ran out of buyers, and the session ended just below it. A Tuesday open that fails to take out 22,785 and rolls back below 22,721.6 (expiry TC) sets up a re-test of Monday's POC at 22,663.5 and potentially the BC at 22,615. Expiry-day volatility can produce both fakeout above the Poor High and rejection in the same session.
The level that decides it. 22,785.1 on the upside (Poor High — a print and hold above confirms the weekly high is not resistance), 22,721.6 on the downside (expiry day TC — a break and close below flips Tuesday's bias to range-sell).
For how these order-flow, OI and market-profile reads fit together with CPR and pivots, see Reading the Market. The month-in-review for every completed month is the Monthly Framework Ledger; every prior session is in the Daily Recap archive. The running, day-by-day record of these calls is the Framework Scorecard.
Conclusion
The wLow at 22,440 was tested for the second time in three sessions on Monday and rejected for the second time. Short Covering did the rest — 350 points in a single session, from the weekly low to the weekly high, with a Poor High at 22,785.1 to show for it. Friday built the short positions at the bottom. Monday squeezed them out at the top. The market has now handed Tuesday a simple decision: print above 22,785 and confirm the recovery, or reject the Poor High and turn the week's rally into a dead-cat bounce. Expiry day will answer it without ambiguity.
Not investment advice. This is a study of order flow, market profile, and open interest for educational purposes. Trade your own plan.
— Shak